关于救助通用汽车

author: 辉格

Casey B. Mulligan在Supply and Demand发表了对财政部救助通用汽车与否的看法，他认为：由于法律禁止GM在破产之前出售优质资产，这也意味着剥离GMAC在接受资助后的短期内无可能实现，所以财政部的资助不可能改造其产业结构，而只能让股东受益。如果GM股东摆脱工会和退休者的唯一方法是破产，那么GM迟早会破产，无论有无救助。

Do not take for granted that (hypothetical) Treasury purchases of newly issued GM stock would significantly change the organization of the industry by reducing the probability of bankruptcy. Absent Treasury action, GM would likely end up joining with another automaker. All the Treasury action might do is let GM be the acquirer rather than the acquired.

There are fraudulent conveyance laws: GM cannot sell its valuable assets and then declare bankruptcy. Thus, Treasury cash would enable GM to spin off GMAC only if GM kept enough of the Treasury cash to avoid going bankrupt too soon after the spin off.

If bankruptcy were the only way shareholders could free themselves from obligations to unions and retirees, then bankruptcy may happen regardless of whether the Treasury gives cash.

甚得吾意。